With the 2022 midterm elections taking place on November 8th, most eyes are focused on the senate race
The midterm senate races are currently controlled by the democrats as vice President Kamala Harris breaks the 50-50 tie.
Midterm races are extremely important, especially to the President, as they determine whether Joe Biden will be able to get new policies passed. If either the Senate or Congress has a Republican majority, it will lead to a lot of President Biden’s policies getting blocked.
An example of these policies is the codification of reproductive rights and access to abortion, which Biden has said is one of his first goals in the second part of his term.
Each state has two senators. This year, 35 Senate seats are on the ballot this November, as well as all 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
Currently, the Democrats hold a slim majority in both the House and the Senate. Recent polling suggests that the Democrats are likely to keep their majority in the Senate. The Economist’s data suggests a 76% likelihood of a democratic win. However, they are predicted to lose the House.
There are a few states where the results could swing either way. A few midterm senate races that many are keeping an eye on are in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire.
A Gallup poll looked at the most important issues to Americans. With inflation, poor leadership, and the economy being key issues.
Whilst the President’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections, many nominated Republican candidates are viewed as potentially unelectable. And, while pessimism about the economy will hinder the Democrats, democratic voters may come out in full force in wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to permit tighter abortion restrictions. As we can see, there are multiple factors at play that could shift election results.
FiveThirtyEight data suggests that Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 and 54 seats in the Senate. On the other hand, some say the Senate race is still too close to call and could go either way.
What could happen if the Democrats win a majority in the Senate?
Well, currently the Senate have a majority in a 50-50 senate headed by Vice President Harris. But, the Democrats are hoping to acquire at least two more sears due to the roadblocks they’ve been facing from moderate Democratic Senators Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Of course, gaining these extra Senate seats is less significant if the Democrats lose the house.
It’s unlikely that Republicans will flip the Senate, but it is looking increasingly likely that they will gain control of the House. If this happens, House Republicans are planning on announcing a “Commitment to America”. Reports suggest that the number one issue in this Commitment is the economy and inflation. However, they can be limited by a presidential veto as well as a likely Democratic Senate.
Remember to check that you’re registered to vote for those who are eligible and that your voter records are up to date. Rules differ by state but some states require you to register up to 30 days before Election Day. You may also need a photo ID and mail-in voting may be different than it was in 2020, due to many red states coming down on the practice on the premise of voter fraud.